The number of people living with Parkinson’s disease is projected to more than double by 2050, driven largely by population growth and an aging global population, according to a new study.
Research from Chinese and Canadian universities, published in the BMJ, estimates that the total number of cases will rise from 11.9 million in 2021 to 25.2 million by 2050. Experts say this surge highlights the urgent need for better treatments and stronger social support systems.
Amelia Hursey, strategic director at Parkinson’s Europe, emphasized the strain this increase will put on healthcare systems worldwide.
“This issue needs immediate attention,” Hursey told Euronews Health. “No global health service can manage this level of demand for a single condition.”
The study predicts that the prevalence of Parkinson’s will reach 267 cases per 100,000 people by 2050, reflecting a 76% increase over three decades.
East Asia is expected to have the highest number of cases, with 10.9 million people affected by 2050, followed by South Asia, which is projected to have 6.8 million cases. Western sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, is expected to see the fastest growth in cases, with a 292% increase, primarily due to population growth and aging.
Several factors contribute to the increasing burden of Parkinson’s, experts say. Hursey pointed out that as countries develop, physical activity levels tend to decline, which could be linked to a higher risk of neurodegenerative diseases.
“As people become more sedentary in their daily lives, their brain health may suffer,” she explained.
While lower- and middle-income countries will see the sharpest rise in cases, the disease’s prevalence is expected to increase globally. Western Europe will experience a 50% rise in cases, while Central and Eastern Europe will see a 28% increase.
Researchers suggest that differences in socioeconomic status, changing demographics, lifestyle shifts, and environmental factors such as pollution and industrialization may all play a role in these trends.
Some studies have linked air pollution, pesticides, cleaning chemicals, and microplastics to a higher risk of Parkinson’s, though more research is needed to fully understand these environmental risks.
David Dexter, research director at Parkinson’s UK, stressed the importance of investing in medical research, healthcare services, and caregiver support.
“Right now, people with Parkinson’s aren’t getting the medical care and support they need to maintain a good quality of life,” he said.
As the number of cases rises, experts warn that without urgent action, healthcare systems worldwide will struggle to keep up with demand.
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