Health experts across the country are raising concerns that the current measles outbreak in the U.S. is being seriously undercounted. Despite government claims that cases are leveling off, the reality on the ground suggests otherwise — and experts warn the situation could get worse without urgent action.
1. Outbreak Worsens Despite Government’s Optimistic Claims
During a recent Cabinet meeting, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the outbreak has “plateaued.” However, new data from his own department shows the opposite. In Texas, which is at the center of the outbreak, health officials reported 234 new cases in just three weeks — nearly 40% more than the previous three weeks.
New infections have also been reported in Indiana and Ohio. So far this year, at least 760 measles cases have been reported in 24 states, according to CNN.
2. Experts Say True Case Count Could Be in the Thousands
Although the official number of measles cases is around 760, many health experts believe the real number is much higher.
“We don’t have a full picture of what’s happening,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “You can’t say something is flattening if you don’t even know how many people are sick.”
Three deaths — two children in Texas and one adult in New Mexico — have already been reported. Given that measles usually causes about 3 deaths per 1,000 cases, experts say this suggests thousands of infections could already be out there.
3. Underreporting Makes Response Difficult
There are many reasons why measles cases may be going unreported. People might not get tested, or they might avoid hospitals altogether. In places like the Mennonite community in Texas, some people prefer home remedies and don’t report illnesses to doctors.
Dr. Nina Masters, a former CDC epidemiologist, explained that without accurate data, public health officials can’t properly prepare or respond to outbreaks.
“We need better information to know where to send resources and how bad this could get,” she said.
4. Vaccine Hesitancy at the Heart of the Problem
The majority of people getting sick are either unvaccinated or their vaccination status is unknown. The measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine is proven to be highly effective, especially when given quickly during an outbreak.
Dr. Masters helped manage a measles outbreak at a migrant shelter in Chicago last year. Her team used modeling to predict how bad the outbreak could get. They found that mass vaccination made a huge difference — without it, the outbreak could have reached 250 cases, but with fast action, it stopped at just 57.
“The timing of vaccination is everything,” she said. “Delays of even a few days can lead to many more infections.”
5. Past Warnings Were Ignored
Dr. Mark S. Roberts, a health policy expert at the University of Pittsburgh, helped create a model in 2019 predicting a large outbreak in Texas due to low vaccination rates. At the time, his predictions matched closely with current case numbers — but now, some counties are experiencing even more cases than expected.
Gaines County, Texas, had 364 cases as of Tuesday, surpassing the model’s prediction of 270.
“This was predictable and preventable,” said Roberts. “It’s 2025, and a child just died of measles. That should never happen.”
6. Budget Cuts Make Matters Worse
Efforts to track and stop the outbreak are being made more difficult by funding cuts. The CDC pulled back over $11 billion in grants that had helped local health departments during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In New Mexico, funding cuts forced the state to end contracts with 20 temporary workers who were helping with the outbreak response. In Dallas County, Texas, health officials had to cancel vaccine clinics and lay off 21 staff members.
“These cuts mean we can’t do what we need to do to protect people,” said Dr. Phil Huang, the county’s Health and Human Services director.
7.Measles Spreads Easily in Unvaccinated Communities
Measles is one of the most contagious diseases in the world. If an infected person enters a room of unvaccinated people, most of them will likely get sick.
Vaccination rates in the U.S. are no longer strong enough to prevent outbreaks. According to a new report from Truveta, only 68.5% of children had received their first MMR shot by 15 months in 2024 — down from over 77% in 2020.
To stop measles from spreading, about 95% of children need to be fully vaccinated. In Gaines County, nearly 1 in 5 incoming kindergartners hasn’t received the shot.
Other areas in states like Kansas and New Mexico are also falling short of this target. In one Kansas school district hit hard by the outbreak, only 44% of students are vaccinated.
“This data set off real alarm bells for me,” said Dr. Masters.
8. Experts Call for Stronger Leadership and Clear Messaging
While Kennedy has said he supports the MMR vaccine, he has also stated that it should be a personal choice.
Experts say that kind of messaging isn’t enough during a public health emergency.
“We need to be clear: not vaccinating your child doesn’t just put them at risk — it puts others at risk too,” said Dr. Roberts.
The country’s current vaccination rates are leaving too many people vulnerable. Experts are calling for more aggressive outreach, stronger public health messaging, and immediate action to boost immunization coverage — especially in communities already affected.
Conclusion
Health officials and scientists agree that the current measles outbreak didn’t have to happen. It was predicted years ago, and it could have been avoided with better vaccination coverage and stronger public health support. Now, the focus must shift to stopping the spread before more lives are lost.
“Measles was eliminated in the U.S. 25 years ago,” said Dr. Moss from Johns Hopkins. “We can’t let it come back.”
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