The Associated Press conducted an analysis of the death toll in the Israel-Hamas war using data from the Health Ministry in the Gaza Strip. This analysis revealed a decline over time in the proportion of women and children among the fatalities.
The Gaza Health Ministry, part of the Hamas-run government, does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths. Therefore, the proportion of women and children killed is considered the best available proxy for the civilian death toll.
The ministry has periodically released the underlying data for its daily death toll updates on social media. Data sets released in late October, early January, late March, and the end of April included the names, genders, birth dates, and Israeli-issued identification numbers of individuals reported dead due to the war. As of April, nearly 23,000 deaths fit these criteria.
The daily death toll reported by the ministry, often cited by foreign media, is significantly higher and includes individuals not fully identified. The death toll stood at 34,622 at the end of April and 36,379 at the end of May. This count includes bodies not claimed by families, decomposed beyond recognition, or whose records were lost in Israeli raids on hospitals, along with individuals with incomplete records.
The data indicated a decline in the proportion of women and children killed: from 64% in October (4,344 out of 6,745 fully identified people), to 62% by early January (8,711 out of 14,117), to 57% in late March (11,296 out of 19,859), and 54% as of April 30 (12,479 out of 22,961). In April, women and children constituted 38% of the newly and fully identified deaths (1,183 out of 3,102).
Starting in March, the Health Ministry’s data included unidentified bodies lacking Israeli-issued ID numbers: 402 in March and 1,699 in April. The data provided to AP had other imperfections, including duplicates—531 individuals counted twice in March and 11 in April. The AP excluded unidentified bodies and duplicates from its analysis, which did not materially affect the proportion of women and children killed (less than 1%).
When the war concludes, the Health Ministry is expected to fully identify more bodies, providing a clearer record of the war’s total impact on different groups.
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