President Donald Trump has introduced tariffs on the United States’ three largest trading partners—Canada, China, and Mexico—citing the need to address what he describes as a “national emergency” caused by the influx of fentanyl across U.S. borders. Trump holds these countries accountable for the spread of illegal drugs, stating that they have allowed fentanyl to enter the U.S. at unprecedented levels, resulting in thousands of deaths.
However, these tariffs come at a time when the fentanyl crisis is showing signs of improvement. According to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), drug overdose deaths in the U.S. decreased from 114,000 to 87,000 between October 2023 and September 2024. This marks the lowest number of overdose deaths in any 12-month period since June 2020.
Experts worry that the tariffs could undermine international cooperation needed to combat global drug trafficking. “Tariffs are not the most effective way to negotiate with other countries on drug policies,” said Bob McNab, chair of the economics department at Old Dominion University. “It’s like using a sledgehammer to resolve a fence-line dispute with your neighbor.”
Two key factors have contributed to the decline in fentanyl’s impact: law enforcement efforts under the Biden administration to disrupt fentanyl production in China and Mexico, and the widespread availability of naloxone, an overdose reversal medication. These efforts predate the tariffs.
Law enforcement continues to seize fentanyl at the border, with nearly all seizures occurring at the U.S.-Mexico border. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has criticized the tariffs, noting that less than 1% of intercepted fentanyl comes from Canada. Mexico and Canada have announced retaliatory tariffs, raising concerns about a potential trade war.
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